Something for the weekend – Football

Premier League

Everton v Cardiff City Saturday 15:00

Everton are in good form – their league table position underestimates how well they have been playing. In the last three games at home against teams in the bottom half of the league they have won by more than one goal on each occasion. While Cardiff have picked up one point away from home. In five games this season (Huddersfield Town), losing the remainder by an average of 2.25 goals. The current odds of 2.20 with Bet365 for the minus one handicap seem too big. Depending on how risk adverse you are, the play could be on the Asian handicap at -1.25 (-1.00, -1.50) at 2.010

Everton -1 @ 2.20

Bournemouth v Arsenal Sunday 13:30 Sky Sports

Four of Bournemouth home games have ended in over 2.5 goals with the only two exceptions being the south coast derby against Southampton and the two-nil win against shot shy Cardiff City.

All five of Arsenals away games this season have ended up overs with the Newcastle game the only one which didn’t look likely until a late Ciaran Clark goal. Arsenal are averaging just fewer than three goals a game away from the Emirates and conceding just under two. This includes the games against Cardiff (2-3) and Crystal Palace (2-2). While Bournemouth are scoring 1.83 goals at home and conceding 1.17. In the three games against top 10 opposition they have conceded six goals.

Over 3 goals on Goal Line @ 1.86


Brentford v Middlesbrough under 2.5 goals Saturday 17:30 Sky Sports

The late game on Sky Football on Saturday afternoon, suggesting a low level of goals will not increase the viewership here in what should be an intriguing encounter.

The driver for this game being tight is Middlesbrough – under Tony Pulis they have been rock solid this season in 17 games, scoring 1.11 per game and conceding .47 per game. When taking that away from home they score 1.125, conceding .625.

Brentford on the other hand are the perennial entertainers, playing expansive football more suited to a game of FIFA with your mates rather than the Championship. Since Dean Smith jumped ship to Aston Villa they have lost four of their last five league games and three have been under 2.5 goals. In their eight home games this season five have ended in fewer than 2.5 goals. Of the games they had three or more goals only one of them was against a top half team.

Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.0

Sheffield Wednesday V Derby County Saturday 15:00

Sheffield Wednesday are in free fall – picking up one point from a possible fifteen, losing on an aggregate score of 12:2, in complete polar opposite to this Derby team who have picked up ten points from a possible fifteen, including wins against Sheffield United, WBA, Birmingham and a very unlucky draw away to Middlesbrough.

The Owls are over reliant on Adam Reach to both create chances and score worldies while on the flip side Derby have a complete attacking team and one cannot be but impressed by the job Frank Lampard has done with a young side.

Derby Win @ 2.05

Derby -1 A/H @ 3.10

League 1

Scunthorpe v Portsmouth

Top of the league Portsmouth travel to Scunthorpe in what should be a straight forward three points. They have won seven from nine on the road already scoring 1.5 goals per game versus a Scunthorpe United side who have only won twice at home and conceded 2.5 goals per game.

Portsmouth have had the benefit of an international break finishing up with a win at Bradford prior to beating Spurs U21 side in the EFL Trophy. While Scunthorpe rode there luck versus a badly out of form Bristol Rovers team – losing the shot count and the possession stats. I can’t see anything but a Pompey win here.

Portsmouth Win @ 1.9

Portsmouth -1 A/H @ 2.75

League 2

Macclesfield Town v Yeovil

Yeovil are very sporadic, they don’t win or lose at home, drawing six of their eight games at Huish Park. Away from home is a different story either winning or losing, narrowly or blowing teams away. The logic here however is a play against Macclesfield; they have only won one game this season and conceded two goals a game in the process while scoring at 0.77 goals a game. This lowers to a goal every second game at home and losing four of their last five games in League Two. Eighteen games in and they are truly the worst team in the football league and look in deep trouble.

Yeovil Win @ 2.37

Tranmere v Oldham

Both teams only concede a little over one goal a game this season with Tranmere only conceding three at home this season and Oldham have six past them on their travels.

  • 12/18 Tranmere games this season have under 2.5 goals. 8/9 at home.
  • 9/18 Oldham games under 2.5 goals. 6/9 away.

Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.75

Serie A

Inter v Frosinone

Inter Milan should have far too much for the Serie A new boys this weekend in the San Siro. They have been impressive at home this season, winning 4/6 games, scoring 12 and conceding just 4 goals. While the new boys have found it tough on the road with only 1 win to their name.

Inter have led in 4/6 games at home this season at half time and are yet to concede a goal.

Frosinone have conceded 9 goals in the first period and 25 goals in the full 90 mins.

The only downfall here could be the fact Inter travel to Wembley for a key Champions League game but that is Wednesday so they have enough time to prepare whilst also securing a big margin victory against Frosinone

Inter -.5, -1.0 First Half A/H @ 2.00

Inter -2.0 A/H @ 2.25

Napoli v Chievo

Napoli have led in 50% of their home games this season while Chievo have been behind in all of their 5 games, not scoring a goal. In fact Chievo have been appalling this season, conceding 30 goals in 12 games and winning zero. Napoli will have one eye on the midweek game versus Red Star but that is Wednesday and also in the San Paolo. A confidence boosting wide margin victory awaits the Gli Azzuri.

Napoli -1 First Half A/H @1.80

La Liga

Huesca v Levante

Levante are taken to heap more misery on newly promoted Huesca, the former have a 50% win rate away from home, whilst sorry Huesca have not won a game on home soil this season. Their failure to score being their main downfall and even in a recent club friendly against Eibar they lost two nil.

Levante on the other hand are averaging 1.5 goals per game and should have more than enough to cement their mid table position here.

Levante Win @ 2.87

Real Sociedad v Celta Vigo

Real Sociedad are yet to win at home this season and whilst Celta Vigo are no great shakes on the road they have at least a propensity to find the back of the net, scoring nine goals in five away games whilst Real Sociedad have only managed 3 goals in the same amount of home games. With the 0.5 line on the Asian handicap a draw is enough for Celta Vigo in a game they shouldn’t lose.

Celta Vigo + 0.5 A/H @ 2.05

Athletic Bilbao v Getafe

Getafe have got a positive result in all but one away game this season while Athletic Bilbao have won only one at home in six, conceding ten goals in that time.

Getafe +0.5 A/H @ 1.80

Ligue 1

Nice v Lille

Lille continue to fly high in Ligue 1, sitting best of the rest in second place behind PSG, mainly thanks to their home form, but away they have been better than the results show. Pushing the runaway leaders close last time out. The Bordeaux game shows how well they are regarded. Conceding early and then going on to dominate the shot count and possession stats. They deserved something from the game. Nice on the other hand are having all sorts of problems at home – only winning 2/6 games and more worrying for them – scoring just three goals.

Lille Win @ 2.55


Borussia M’Gladbach v Hannover 96

Borussia M’Gladbach are no price to be backing in a single and the handicap lines are a little high for my liking. Hannover have showed themselves to be a structurally strong team and preform above expectations in the first half. Of the six games played away from home to date they have been drawing four of them at half time, conceding five goals. Borussia M’Gladbach on the other hand have been drawing three of their five games, interestingly only scoring two goals that time.

Now if we compare that to full time results. Hannover has lost 4/6 conceding fifteen goals and Borussia M’Gladbach has won all five games scoring fourteen and conceding two.

Draw-Borussia M’Gladbach HT/FT @ 4.00

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