Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys Thursday 21:30 Sky Sports
Line Dallas Cowboys -7 Over/Under 40.5
Dallas had 340 yards total offence last week versus Atlanta including 122 on the ground Zeke Elliot.
While any over 300 yard game is impressive this was against one of the most beat up teams in the NFL – Atlanta have quite literally no defence. They are currently allowing 405 yards per game and relying on offensive weapons to keep them close.
On the other side of the ball Dallas are strong allowing 331 yards per game – 371 on Sunday.
Washington meanwhile lost their QB to injury. Prior to that they were an average team. Run of the mill defence doing just enough to keep them in games and relying on a thirty three year old running back in the form of Adrian Peterson to move them up the field.
This has all the feeling of a low scoring close encounter with both teams trying to run the ball to keep the key play-makers involved. Will likely come down to a score given the stakes at play (winner puts themselves in prime position for playoff push). With the current line of a touchdown you have to be taking the points with Washington.
Washington Redskins +7 @ 2.00
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saint Friday 1.15am Sky Sports
Line New Orleans Saints -13 Over/Under 59.5
If Dallas and Washington will be low scoring, this will be the exact opposite. New Orleans one of the top five offences in the league, averaging per game 427 total yards v an Atlanta defence which allows 405 yards per game. In addition they have the second best rushing defence in the league.
Atlanta are missing both starting safeties, have injury concerns over two line backers and corners. Drew Brees should have some fun.
The line itself of thirteen points is tempting just below the two touchdown mark but I’m at pains to back a double figure line and am happy to back the over in the points. It is a likely angle that both teams will go over their expected totals (Atlanta 23.5 and New Orleans 37). This will be played indoors which suits both teams and their offensive styles.
Total points Over 60 @ 1.90
New England Patriots @ New York Jets Sunday 18:00 NFL Redzone Sky Sports Mix
Line New York Jets +9 Over/Under 46
After the bye New England are pretty much restored to full health with the return of Rob Gronkowski. This is a New England offence that has scored on average 28 points per game.
Their ability to run the ball this season has allowed Tom Brady more time and he should be able to pick his way around against a team that gave up 41 points versus the second worst offence in football.
The Jets have shown some ability to score but I cannot see them able to roll with the Patriots and this could get ugly quickly. New York Jets mail threat is Robby Anderson and he is questionable with an ankle. Even if he plays you would have to query how well he will be able to play with such limited options elsewhere.
New England Patriots -9 @ 1.90
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings Monday 01:20 Sky Sports
Line Minnesota -3 Over/Under 48
Minnesota need to win – they are running out of time – with their defeat to Chicago last weekend and road trips to New England and Seattle this home game is massive in terms of playoff permutations.
The earlier meeting between these two ended in that rare occurrence in NFL – A Tie.
The Vikings are fully healthy and are well positioned for a late playoff push. Kirk Cousins should have plenty of opportunities versus the weak secondary in Green Bay. Dalvin Cook who missed most of last season is starting to hit top gear in his come back from an ACL injury.
Green Bay has injury concerns all over the place but has had a long week to prepare. The main issue is defence, they don’t give Aaron Rodgers the best opportunity despite his excellent numbers they have slumped to a losing record and while their final games have three locks (Cardinals, Jets, Falcons) their defence won’t be able to keep them in this one.
Minnesota are more equipped than most to slow down Aaron Rodgers and more than enough weapons on offence to put up the numbers against Green Bay.
Minnesota Vikings -3 @ 1.80